Bush's new year, Bush's old year

Posted by Mark Silva at 9:15 am CST

As the American death toll in Iraq nears 3,000, President Bush acknowledges that the execution of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein will not abate the violence there.

Indeed, “the intensity of combat’’ in Iraq is understated by the U.S. death toll alone, notes Anthony Cordesman, a scholar of the war and senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A “far more serious’’ milestone was reached on Dec. 11, Cordesman suggests, when the total number of Americans killed or wounded in Iraq reached 25,000. And none of this takes into account varying estimates of the still much greater Iraqi casualty toll.

The hanging of Hussein may close an agonizing chapter in history that began with President Bush's vow to achieve a "regime change" with the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. But the execution of the longtime Iraqi strongman does not alter the fundamental problems that Bush faces: Reclaiming public support in the U.S. for a war that a majority of Americans now oppose, and charting a convincing course for the victory that Bush vows to achieve before withdrawing U.S. forces.

Posted by Mark Silva at 6:15 am CST

President Bush: Hero or villain?

It turns out he comes out both in a year-end survey conducted by the Associated Press and AOL News, which asked people to name the past year's biggest villain and the biggest hero. Bush topped both lists, albeit with relatively small percentages of all the people responding to this survey. Oprah Winfrey ranked as the leading celebrity role model in this same survey. Britney Spears ranked as the worst.

Posted by Mark Silva at 8:30 am CST

With his announcement of his candidacy for president today, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is playing the Internet for all its worth – offering a YouTube broadcast of the campaign themes that he is spelling out in New Orleans today and then a "town hall'' meeting from Iowa later on his Web-site.

"I'm announcing here because no place better demonstrates the two Americas I've talked about for a long time,'' Edwards told supporters by email of his New Orleans announcement – arriving precisely one day before the date which The Swamp reported a little over two weeks ago that Edwards would announce his candidacy.

"But even more important, no place better demonstrates the power people have when they -- not Washington -- take responsibility and take action to build the America we believe in.''

Posted at 8:00 am CST

Posted by Mark Silva at 10:30 am CST

President Bush has declared that there will be a national day of mourning in memory of President Gerald Ford, who died at the age of 93 on Tuesday.

The president will announce that date soon, and the government's flags also will be flown at half-staff for 30 days in honor of the late 38th president, according to a proclamation that Bush issued today:

Posted by Frank James at 7:36 am CST

President Ford makes a point during a May 1975 National Security Council meeting. Credit: White House Photograph Courtesy Gerald R. Ford Library. Photographer: David Hume Kennerly

The death of former President Gerald Ford certainly brings sadness but it is not a tragedy, for the death of anyone who lives to be 93 can't typically said to be tragic.

We'll no doubt have more throughout the day on Ford's death and the meaning of his presidency. I'm hoping I can get my colleague Bill Neikirk, who knew Ford as president and interviewed him (he has the picture to prove it) to blog on him.

Bill has a lengthy news obituary in today's Chicago Tribune which I recommend. With famous people, it's the practice of newspapers to have an obit "in the can," so to speak, ready to be published when the person dies. Needless to say, Ford's obit had been in the can for a very long time.

(By the way, I highly recommend the web site of the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum. It has great photos from the Ford presidency as well as a statement from former first lady Betty Ford and a link to funeral arrangements. Also recommended: the New York Times' multimedia Ford retrospective narrated by Adam Clymer, a former Times staffer.)

Posted by Mark Silva at 7:30 am and updated at 8 am CST

The White House paid tribute this morning to the 38th president, the late Gerald R. Ford, who had presided over what his former chief of staff, Vice President Dick Cheney, today called "the greatest constitutional crisis since the Civil War.''

That, of course, was the resignation of President Richard M. Nixon in the summer of 1974 as he faced certain impeachment following his cover-up of the Watergate scandal, which Bush today remembered as time of turmoil and division.

Ford pardoned Nixon, forever etching Ford's own name in controversy but also casting the softly spoken former congressman from Michigan as an admired healer during a deep rift in the nation's history.

Posted 6:18 am CST

Posted by Mark Silva at 11:30 am CST

Talk about leveling the playing field: Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has pulled a statistical tie in a hypothetical contest with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, traditional site of the first presidential primary elections.

The findings of the new poll sponsored by the Concord (N.H.) Monitor are particularly noteworthy in that just last month another Monitor-run poll found Clinton holding a 23 percentage-point advantage over Obama in a primary match-up. What’s happened in between polls? Obama made a successful tour of the Granite State, and he is said to be close to be making a decision about his candidacy for president in 2008.

One more important note: Carry the contest forward to a general election and Obama fares better than Clinton against either one of the most popular Republican candidates for president named in the New Hampshire poll: Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. That air of “electability’’ carries a powerful appeal.

Posted 7:17 am CST

Posted by Mark Silva at 1:38 pm CST

The passing of the world's greatest soul singer early today has elicited a farewell note from the president of the United States, with President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush relaying a message from their Christmas retreat at Camp David about the death of James Brown, 73:

"Laura and I are saddened by the death of James Brown,'' Bush said in a statement released by the White House. "For half a century, the innovative talent of the "Godfather of Soul" enriched our culture and influenced generations of musicians. An American original, his fans came from all walks of life and backgrounds. James Brown's family and friends are in our thoughts and prayers this Christmas.''

Posted by Mark Silva at 8:30 am CST

My children still are sleeping. They are 22 and 19.

This is the first time, in my recollection, that they haven't been awake early on this long-awaited day clawing at the Christmas tree. They are sleeping the sleep of college kids, or women and men. They are home from school, which, for me, is the greatest Christmas present that I could ever have.

The reflecting pool on the National Mall, as seen on Christmas Eve. Photo by Mark Silva

Posted by Mark Silva at 7 am CST

President Bush, facing the final two years of his presidency with lower public approval at the midpoint of his second term than any president since Harry Truman, promises a "robust'' agenda of immigration reform, tax cutting, energy incentives and other initiatives.

But analysts say that -- while the new Democratic-controlled Congress will have as much incentive for working with the president as the president will have for working with Congress, lest the Democrats be deemed another "do-nothing Congress'' in two years -- Bush is unlikely to rally public support for much of anything unless he charts a convincing course forward for the war in Iraq.

For Bush, that course could include a "surge" in U.S. troops in a bid to regain stability in Iraq. But for many in Congress, and for many Americans as well, that course must include some sort of exit strategy.

In the mix, Bush confronts himself as well. As Wayne Fields, director of American culture studies at Washington University, puts it: "The persona and the strategy that so much of his presidency has depended upon -- that business of absolute confidence, that it doesn't matter what the opposition thinks--the basic assumptions of his presidency are now stranded.''

For more on this, see today's article in the Tribune:

Posted by Mark Silva at 6:15 am CST

If the Hawaii-vacationing Sen. Barack Obama happens to turn on the television Christmas morning in Honolulu, he will see an appeal from the DraftObama folks imploring him to run for president.

The 60-second spot sponsored by DraftObama.org is to run on all three of Honolulu's broadcast network affiliates -- ABC, CBS and NBC -- according to a dispatch from the Honolulu Star-Bulletin, which sits on the political front-line of the place where Obama's sister says the senator plans to make up his mind about a candidacy before returning to Washington in the New Year. Here's an excerpt of dispatch:

Posted by Mark Silva at 7:22 am CST

With Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois poised to announce a decision about a campaign for the White House, and with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York ready to run, it's getting to be that time of the election cycle when any other Democrat with serious intentions will have to speak up soon.

And former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who was Sen. John Kerry's running mate in 2004, says he's ready to speak up. You saw it here in the Swamp a while back that Edwards will announce his candidacy before the year's end -- Dec. 29 was offered as the launch date but disputed by friends of John. It seems word will come a bit sooner.

In an email to potential supporters early this morning, Edwards, stirring friends with an "Are you ready?'' rallying call, said he indeed is ready to announce his intentions: "I'll let you know what we decide early next week.''

Posted at 8:18 am CST

Seasons greetings on Christmas Eve, 2006.

Posted by Frank James at 10:33 am CST

The Army significantly lowered its recruiting standards in 2006, alarmingly in some instances, admitting a sharply lower percentage of what it considers "high-quality recruits" than earlier in order to meet its personnel goals, according to a new study.

The study was done by the non-profit National Priorities Project, among whose purposes is to make government data more accessible to average Americans.

The NPP found that 47 percent of those the Army signed up in fiscal year 2006 were high-quality recruits, a drop from 61 percent in 2004. The NPP obtained the data through a Freedom of Information Act request.

Posted by Mark Silva at 10:06 am CST

Both President Bush and Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, delivering their parties' weekly radio addresses today, appealed for support for American military forces serving abroad.

Bush, who is contemplating "a new way forward'' in Iraq, added another hint today that it may not look all that new: "If you're serving on the front lines halfway across the world, it is natural to wonder what all this means for you. I want our troops to know that while the coming year will bring change, one thing will not change, and that is our Nation's support for you and the vital work you do to achieve a victory in Iraq.''

And Bayh, who contemplated his own candidacy for president in 2008 but thought better of it, delivered precisely the sort of address today that a Democrat running for president might deliver, making a conciliatory appeal to put the past behind us and concentrate on a bipartisan path forward.

Posted at 7:13 am CST

Posted by David Lightman at 1:55 p.m. CST

Despite all the talk about just what kind of troop levels the U.S. should maintain, it's not clear anyone knows the size of the Iraqi force, Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) said today in his report to the White House and Pentagon on findings from his trip to Iraq.

Shays, chairman of the House national security subcommittee, earlier this month made his 15th trip to Iraq since the war began in March 2003, and wrote a five-page letter detailing his findings.

He noted that American military commanders say there are 112 Iraqi Army battalions of 757 soldiers each, or a total of 84,784 soldiers on duty in combat units. But on any given day, he said, absences--authorized and unauthorized--can reduce this number by about 20 percent.

That would leave about 67,000 Iraqi soldiers on duty in combat situations--or about half the size of the often-quoted number of 137,500 trained and equipped Iraqis.