by Naftali Bendavid

Any number of analysts have rushed recently to proclaim the virtual end of the Republican Party. Or at a minimum, many years in the wilderness.

"Republicans face crisis," declared the Washington Post recently. A current article in The New Yorker, in a slightly different vein, is headlined "The End of Conservatism." A cable host recently asked hyperbolically, "Is it the end of the [Republican] Party?" Even one blogger on a conservative web site estimated the Republicans would lose seven seats in the Senate and 40 in the House. "We're going down," he observed glumly.

The gist of much of the commentary is that the nation is reaching the end of a major historical cycle. Modern conservatism, and its marriage with the Republican Party, arose from the ashes of Barry Goldwater's 1964 landslide defeat. It attained major victories with Ronald Reagan's victory in 1980 and the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994, and peaked during the years in which President Bush ruled with a Republican Congress.

But now, the theory goes, with Democrats likely to expand the congressional majorities they won in 2006 and a Democrat given a good shot of winning the presidency, the Republican coalition is in tatters and the conservative movement out of ideas. This will require a building process taking decades, some say.

by William Neikirk

The coach quit today.

Rep. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who served as House speaker longer than any other Republican, announced that he's leaving the House and will be gone by the first of the year.

The former high school wrestling coach leaves on a sad note for his party, having lost his job as speaker when the GOP lost control of the House in last year's elections. .

The quiet, unassuming Hastert, 65, bowed out with a gracious speech on the House floor and received standing ovations from both sides of the aisle. His wife was in the gallery, and also was recognized.

Now there will be a special election in his district in suburban Chicago, which includes Aurora and Elgin--and Yorkville, where he was the wrestling coach. The district leans Republican, although Democrats are expected to compete for it.

Posted by Naftali Bendavid at 11:40 am CDT

Commenter "Jim G." wrote:

To say Dems got ruthless is over-stating what happened. They were no-where ruthless enough. Katrina, Deficits, Iraq-- shed light on the fact that Repubs are all propaganda and no substance. Im sure Rahm Emanuel was tuff and all, but the Repubs did themselves in. Just like they did when they caused the great depression. I can't see this nation surviving too many more Repub majorities.

Bruce and Den (Jerry White & John D also)...gather up all your propaganda and take a hike.
May 8, 2007 10:27:46 AM

Another commenter, "Clarence Darrow," wrote:

A big wet, kiss for Rahm Emmanuel. One word why the Democrats got their edge in Congress, "Iraq".

Let's be honest. Rahm's balliwick is raising money. He is the money man. That's why he went into "investment banking" after the White House. He has the phone numbers, he pays the debts. He is everything wrong with the political system. He shovels the Democratic creed, and the naive press just laps it up, paying attention to all the window dressing, like how "tough" he is (LOL), how he cusses like a sailor, how he really gives it to the Republicans.
May 8, 2007 10:42:08 AM

There is no question that the main reason the Democrats won last November was the Iraq war, followed closely by the response to Hurricane Katrina, the Tom DeLay-Jack Abramoff corruption scandals, the Mark Foley sexual e-mail mess and so on. The Republicans imploded in a way rarely seen in American politics, given that in early 2005 some Republicans were talking confidently about being the ruling party for decades to come. I'm not sure anyone could dispute that the GOP was largely responsible for its own undoing, and it's a point I make clearly in the book.

Posted by Naftali Bendavid at 11:32 am CDT

Commenter "not happy" wrote:

Ruthless, indeed. Just ask anyone who worked on Dan Seals' campaign for congress (Il 10th); Rahm and his merry men completely ignored Dan's bid to take the wealthiest (and certainly one of the most influential) districts in the state. Dan ended up losing by only a few more votes than Tammy Duckworth, who Rahm and the DCCC poured money and resources into.

May 8, 2007 8:39:28 AM

One of the challenges facing any national congressional campaign is deciding which candidates to back and which to ignore. It's one of the areas guaranteed to bring criticism, because the party will inevitably pour money into some candidates who lose--and some of those the party ignores will come painfully close to winning. That is certainly true of the 2006 election.

Many of those who criticize Emanuel say it's not just a matter of his making a few understandable mistakes; they feel his entire strategy was wrong. The country was ready to back bold populists, this argument goes, and instead Emanuel supported bland establishment candidates like Tammy Duckworth.

Posted by Naftali Bendavid at 10:33 am CDT

Commenter "Weinerdog43" wrote:

I'll be very curious to see if Mr. Bendavid discusses Rahm's taking credit for the 2006 election, despite overwhelming evidence that it was Howard Dean's 50 state strategy that delivered.
Good luck Mr. Bendavid. Here's hoping it's a good read. You've got some interesting characters to work with.
May 7, 2007 6:25:10 PM

I do talk in the book about the relative credit due Rahm Emanuel and Howard Dean.

Dean supporters argue that it was his 50-state strategy that was responsible for the Democrats' victory. By placing activists and putting money into states the Democrats did not traditionally win, the argument goes, they enabled the party to pick up seats in places like Indiana and Kentucky.

Emanuel's supporters counter that it was his aggressive recruitment of moderate candidates, like Heath Shuler in North Carolina and Brad Ellsworth in Indiana, that led the Democrats to victory. For too long the party insisted on an ideological orthodoxy that resulted in purist nominees who got clobbered, according to this way of thinking.

Posted by Frank James at 9:08 am CDT

Martin Frost, the former Democratic congressman from Texas who once headed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has a column worth reading on the FoxNews website.

It's on Rep. Rahm Emanuel, his successor as head of the committee and occasioned by the new book, "The Thumpin' " by Naftali Bendavid, the Chicago Tribune's deputy Washington bureau chief.

In short, Frost says Rahm's success in regaining House control for the Democrats was based on being prepared so that when the political winds shifted, Democrats were in a position to take advantage. More proof of the old adage, "Fortune favors the prepared mind."

Posted by Frank James at 2:18 pm CDT

Our own Naftali Bendavid, deputy chief of the Chicago Tribune’s Washington bureau, has a new book “The Thumpin’, that chronicles Rep. Rahm Emanuel and the Democrats’ takeover of Congress. The title comes from President Bush’s characterization of the defeat Republicans experienced at Democratic hands last fall.

The book grew out of a post-election article Naftali wrote based on his exclusive year-long access to Emanuel, the peppery and profane Chicago-area congressman and former Clinton White House political operative who ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s successful efforts in 2006.

To mark the book’s publication by Doubleday and its going on sale Tuesday, Naftali has agreed to blog tomorrow about Emanuel, the book, and the House Democrats.

So even though we know Swampers haven’t had a chance to read the book, don’t let that stop you from weighing in on Emanuel or joining our “Ask Naftali” session. Look for his posting early tomorrow and send in those questions or comments.

Posted by Frank James at 2:25 pm CDT

Some commenters to Pete Souza's photo post showing Tammy Duckworth's artificial legs resting under a table as she testified on Capitol Hill took issue with our putting the photo up on The Swamp.

It was an arresting photo, at least to us. So we thought we'd share it with you. No greater political message was intended.

The sight of those metal and plastic legs, reminded us of what she has lost, that's true. That would be true regardless of what war she fought in.

Prosthetic limbs are also fascinating. They combine the science and art of their manufacture and the determination of the wearer. They declare the user's desire to be whole, to be independent. At least, that's what they seem to say to me, a person who, for now, still has all my limbs.

One commenter asked, justifiably, for the substance of what Duckworth, who heads Illinois's Department for Veterans' Affairs, had to say. This video clip provides that.

(Chicago Tribune photo by Pete Souza)

Posted by Pete Souza at 12:24 pm CDT

Iraq war veteran and former congressional candidate, Tammy Duckworth, now director of the Illinois Department of Veterans' Affairs, testifies before the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee during an oversight hearing on VA-DoD cooperation in health care issues March 27, 2007 on Capitol Hill.

Next to Duckworth is retired Army Capt. Jonathan D. Pruden and Denise Mettie, mother of Evan Mettie, who suffered a severe traumatic brain injury.

Guest Posted by David Lightman at 6:08 a.m. CST

The Federal Election Commission is questioning whether the Connecticut Senate campaigns of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman and Democratic challenger Ned Lamont fully disclosed all of their contributions. Here's the rest of my story in today's Hartford Courant.

Posted by Frank James at 8:13 am CST

The Washington Post has a story today about the four-day celebration House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi has planned to mark the historic moment in January when she takes up the House gavel and becomes the first woman speaker in the nation's history.

As the story relates, the festivities will include Pelosi's returning to the working-class Baltimore neighborhood she grew up in where a street will be named in her honor.

Posted by David Lerman at 12:41 CST

He was just a 20-year-old college kid with a camcorder.

But S.R. Sidarth— a son of Indian immigrants who was called ``macaca”—helped foil the re-election of Virginia Sen. George Allen, tipping control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats.

Sidarth, whose videotape of Allen’s ``macaca” stumble spread across the Internet like wildfire, became an overnight celebrity.

Posted by Frank James at 11:12 am CST

House Speaker-elect Rep. Nancy Pelosi has named Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen to be the new Rahm Emanuel, that his the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

As the head of that committee, Rep. Emanuel of Illinois, received a large share of the credit for the Democrats' success in taking control of the House after 12 years of Republican control.

Posted by Josh Drobnyk at 12:00 pm CST

Look out Bank of America. Bank of Santorum could soon be nipping at your heels.

Pennsylvania’s outgoing Republican senator, Rick Santorum, is considering founding a bank in the Keystone State, according to a source close to the lawmaker.

Add that possibility to reports that Santorum, who Pennsylvania voters gave the boot in last month’s election in favor of Democrat Bob Casey, is negotiating a deal with Fox News to have a show on the cable network.

That’s not all. He’s also said to be shopping a book to publishers that picks up on the “Gathering Storm” theme he hit home on during the dying days of his campaign. In a two-day statewide tour at the end of the race, Santorum gave a series of speeches that talked of the looming threat from Iran and “Islamic fascism” while invoking the title of Winston Churchill’s World War II book “The Gathering Storm.”

Posted by Frank James at 12:35 pm CST

The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress, has a story today by reporter Jackie Kucinich about Tom DeLay (yes, that Tom DeLay) who has created a blog in order to help Republicans regain the majority.

There are many interesting things about this story. First, the story was written by the daughter of Dennis Kucinich (yes, that Dennis Kucinich,) the way left-of-center Cleveland congressman who just announced today that he is running, once again, for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Posted by David Lightman at 9:25 a.m. CST

Less than 100 votes cost Rob Simmons his seat in Congress but the Republican is still focused on his future as I write in today's Hartford Courant.

Posted by Mike Dorning at 11:55 am CST.

Had it not been for a Democratic political operative, former Republican Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate e-mails to under-age former pages might never have come to light.

Among the many fascinating details contained in the 89-page House Ethics Committee report on the Foley scandal is the chain of events that led to broader dissemination of Foley's e-mail exchanges.

It all started when a junior staffer in a congressional office received a complaint from a former page about Foley's e-mails to him and was rebuffed when she tried to raise the matter with another staff member in the office.

She then did what many many people now do when pondering an e-mail: She forwarded it to a friend. And as often happens, the forward button was pressed again and again, until it reached a Democratic operative.

Here is the chain of events, as laid out in the report:

Posted by Frank James at 8 am CST

A lot of people probably don't know that defeated members of Congress get to attend an outplacement session, something akin to what's provided to the most fortunate laid-off workers (Yes, that's an oxymoron.)

Peter Overby, a National Public Radio reporter, did a small segment on it on "All Things Considered" last night. Unlike most laid-off workers, they get to keep a few perks, including a "parking plate" that still gets them great parking on Capitol Hill, a very tough neighborhood for parking.

The entertaining segment prominently features Katherine Harris, the Florida congresswoman who gained infamy as that state's secretary of state in 2000 for certifying President Bush's razor-thin victory in that state over Vice President Al Gore. Even in defeat, Harris has a way of thrusting herself in towards the center of the story.

The short piece is worth checking out.

Posted by Frank James at 10:46 am CST

A University of Michigan scientist has created interesting depictions of the familiar red-blue voting-pattern maps.

Using cartograms, Mark Newman, an associate professor of physics and complex systems, wanted to give a truer sense of the population distribution of Republican and Democratic votes in the recent House elections than do typical maps which are based on congressional districts rather than population densities.

Traditional maps skew things because they are based on acreage, not population, Newman says.

"We can correct for this by making use of a cartogram, a map in which the sizes of districts are rescaled according to their population," he says. "That is, districts are drawn with a size proportional not to their sheer topographic acreage – which has little to do with politics – but to the number of their inhabitants, districts with more people appearing larger than districts with fewer, regardless of their actual area on the ground."

Here's a traditional map:

But here's a map based on population:

As you can see, it's a much different-looking map. Fairly weird-looking, actually.

Read Newman's entire document.

Posted by Frank James at 4:58 pm CST

The Pew Research Center for People and the Press has a new poll which suggests that Sen. Barack Obama is sneaking up on fellow Sen. Hillary Clinton to become her closest rival, at least in terms of popularity or name recognition, for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the survey of 1,479 registered voters done in the days after the recent mid-tem elections, 23 percent of the Democrats who were asked who should get the Democratic presidential nomination said the senator from Illinois should.